What clicked for me on load curves was treating them as four separate stories stitched together rather than one curve.
The contact region (where force first rises off zero) tells you about die alignment and stripper preload. A clean ramp = good seating; a stair-step or spike means something's hanging up before full contact.
The shear/forming hump is where the actual work happens. The peak height is your tonnage, but the *shape* matters more ??a sharp narrow peak suggests proper clearance, a broad shallow hump means worn punches or excessive clearance. Width tells you stripping behavior.
The drop after peak is the breakthrough. On blanking dies it should be steep; on draw/form it should taper. A second smaller peak right after the main one almost always means the punch is rebounding into snap-through, which is hard on tooling and a sign you need a shock absorber or thicker shedder spring.
The return curve (slide on the way up) carries the stripping force. If it stays elevated for a long stretch, the stripper is dragging ??usually a galled punch or coolant starvation.
Once you read it as four phases, drift in any one of them points to a specific cause. Whole-curve comparison alone is too noisy to act on.